“ Orange “ the hangover ofthe Political season in Russia and the majority of the CIS countries, usually, begins at the end of September and comes to an end at the beginning of July. Than last season was most of all remembered? Of course, train “ color “ revolutions. It is difficult to find other phenomenon which would cause so much bewilderment of experts, hopes of opposition, fears of law-abiding citizens. Perhaps, in our country only the monetization of social benefits is comparable to it.
On this background it is even strange that consequences “ velvet “ revolutions interest analysts and the public much less, than revolutions. Meanwhile, from the moment of change of the mode in Georgia there passed more than one and a half years, Yushchenko and his colleagues in Ukraine in power already about half a year - sufficient term to make the first generalizations. And it is valid, we see common features at new, “ revolutionary “ modes. Can seem strange, but these are just those signs which the Russian opposition likes to criticize... in policy of the president Putin. Only, sometimes, shown in more rigid form.
1. Omnipotence “ parties in power “. “ Parties in power “ (unlike ruling parties) - typically Post-Soviet phenomenon. Their representatives are not included into authorities as a result of fight with similar. On the contrary, they are delegated by executive power to parliament to represent there its interests. To “ color “ revolutions both in Georgia, and in Ukraine local “ parties in power “ of course, used a considerable financial and administrative resource, but were rather weak. Moreover, on lands “ nezalezhny “ a little " worked at the same time; parties in power “ competing with each other (integrated sotsiat - democrats, Party of Regions and others). Everything changed with coming to power of the new modes. About a year ago in Georgia it was created “ United National Movement “ where the politicians and officials wishing to show the loyalty to the president Saakashvili were forced to enter. It is characteristic that they went to the Georgian parliament under flags of the most different parties, and entered END fraction, being already deputies.
Spring of this year in the Ukrainian city of Kanev the president of the republic Viktor Yushchenko, the prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Volodymyr Lytvyn agreed about performance at the future parliamentary elections the uniform block and, perhaps, creation of uniform party. By the way, in 1999 in the same Kanev the leading leaders of the Ukrainian opposition the socialist Alexander Moroz, the landowner and the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Alexander Tkachenko, ex-the chairman of Security service of Ukraine Evgeny Marchuk and the mayor Cherkass Vladimir Oliynyk met (“ kanevsky four “) to combine efforts against the president Kuchma. You already paid attention that stars “ orange “ Yushchenko and Tymoshenko`s revolutions among “ kanevets “ was not. And could not be - for this moment they were in power structures and were devoted supporters of the president Kuchma, helping it to be elected for the following term.
“ Kanevsky four “ very quickly broke up. The probability that the same destiny waits new " is high; party in power “. But a tendency all the same on the person - all new “ color “ the modes seek for creation “ one and a half-party " system; - when the superinfluential permanent ruling party is resisted by the sverslaby separated opposition.
Reminds nothing? Correctly - “ United Russia “. The party uniting people of the widest range of views, created on the basis of two competing blocks (“ Unity “ and “ The fatherland - all Russia “) gone to the State Duma of the Russian Federation separately and received in 2003 complete control over parliament. It appears “ bears “ are found not only in Russia...
2. Approach to the rights of regions. Transition from elections to the actual appointment of governors in Russia was ambiguously apprehended also within the country and abroad. One of the last examples - the Resolution of Parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe adopted at the end of June with criticism of this innovation. Approximately creation of federal districts, providing to the President the right to oust governors, redistribution of the income from taxes in favor of the federal budget was estimated also earlier.
Nevertheless, governors in Ukraine were always appointed the President. Before the last elections appeals passing to their election as the population were distributed, but after coming to power of Yushchenko they calmed down. Pressure upon the only autonomy as a part of the country began to be put, Crimean - under the influence of the center its management was replaced. If before premieres of the republic it was appointed its parliament, then now it was, actually, appointed from Kiev.
Approximately the same is in Georgia. It is possible to justify with fight for the state integrity difficult relations of Tbilisi with the Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia which long ago declared the independence and which created own paramilitary groups. However the republic Adjara never applied for sovereignty. Nevertheless, in March, 2004 there was a change of the power at intervention of the Georgian authorities, including to use of threat of use of military force. Current situation of Adjara leader of Republican Party of Georgia David Berdzenishvili (in the beginning one of leaders “ revolutions of roses “ and nowadays - the opponent Saakashvili) in interview to the Russian " edition; The Businessman - the power “ in February of the current year characterized as “ pseudo-autonomy “ “ direct presidential board in a democratic cover “.
3. Relations with opposition and independent press. Yulia Tymoshenko`s business became the most noticeable conflict between law enforcement agencies and the oppositional politician in Ukraine. Nevertheless, at least, pretext of steel for it economic questions. By the way, and Tymoshenko`s transition to opposition approximately coincides with the beginning of criminal prosecution “ lady of Yu “. What reason of leaving of Tymoshenko in policy: sudden inspiration of the faithful member of team Kuchma or desire to escape from criminal prosecution? Solve.
“ Orange “ revolution brought the new phenomenon - mass prosecution of figures of opposition for the political statements made by them. “ First signs “ there was an arrest of the chairman of the Donetsk regional council Boris Kolesnikov for the proposal made by it to turn Ukraine into federation. In this statement there was no appeal to separatism, and the possibility of an autonomy of regions is put in the Constitution of the country. The status of the Crimea became practical manifestation of this right. After Kolesnikov in the State Office of Public Prosecutor of the country Victor Yanukovych - the leading leader of the Ukrainian opposition and the main rival of Yushchenko on presidential elections was called. At the time of writing of this article - so far as the witness. Leaders of integrated sotsiat - democratic party (SDPU(o)), at Kuchma former one of “ parties in power “ and now being in opposition, repeatedly declared pressure upon party members, the working willows state structures, with the requirement to leave its ranks or to change a job.
Georgia is a striking example of a situation with the oppositional press. We remember that existence of independent nation-wide TV channels was the major help for “ color “ revolutions. Now the public TV channels support already new power, former oppositional also support the government. And here the new opposition lost an important resource - " TV channel; Iveriya “ the former head of Adjara Aslan Abashidze supporting now. In already mentioned interview to the Russian journalists of the Georgian oppositionist David Berdzenishvili the reason of such behavior of the new mode is called: “ Saakashvili was afraid emergence of alternatiany political party, at first within the Adzharian autonomy, and then and across all Georgia “. However, further the leader of the Georgian republicans declares that with democracy in his country it is better, than in Russia. Basis of such statement, existence in Georgia... independent newspapers. If this biggest achievement “ revolutions of roses “ in the field of democracy, it is possible to judge that is cost by the others.
4. Observance of the property right. The idea about mass revision of results of privatization began to be in the air in the first weeks new “ orange “ the authorities in Ukraine. About a situation in Georgia again (and last time in this article) we will quote David Berdzenishvili`s interview: “ We against that policy which was pursued by the State Office of Public Prosecutor of Georgia when detained people selected money, and then released people “.
5. Social guarantees. It is quite difficult to speak about change of a situation with social guarantees in Georgia as the majority of the privileges perceived in our country as due, are absent there. To be fair it should be noted increase of pensions (for the sum to approximately equivalent 7 dollars - now it corresponds to 14 dollars (28 lari)).
And here the destiny of social guarantees in Ukraine is questionable. The matter is that the prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko at the beginning of a year suggested to carry out a radical reform with cancellation of the majority of the operating taxes. Considerable losses of the budget had to be offset by the income from management of the state property which volume had to increase as a result of mass revision of results of privatization. However the government had to concede to pressure and so far to suspend implementation of this plan. And at this time other serious blow was struck to Tymoshenko`s government. In response to attempt to set the maximum limit of fuel prices, the authorities received the actual boycott from oil campaigns. As a result, the government had to concede, and to select to the agricultural producers who were injured from a jump in prices grants from the state budget. As the income of the budget is reduced, and expenses grow, we will remember at the expense of what articles they always found means of the power of the republics of the CIS. Of course, the social problems providing the decision.
6. “ Orange “ and “ red “. The Russian left broke up in relation to “ color “ to revolutions. One, remembering support of the new modes from the West, sharply condemned them, others were seduced by the word “ revolution “ and they already began to dream about indispensable “ an orange component of red revolution in Russia “. Meanwhile, the new political reality led to sharp decrease in influence of left. Especially brightly it is visible on the example of Ukraine. Until recently the local Communist Party was one of the most influential forces of the country, but at the last presidential elections her leader Pyotr Simonenko collected only about 5% of votes (the fourth place) instead of 22% and an exit in the second round five years ago.
The general crisis of the Communist Parties in the CIS countries which began since 1999 became the main reason (an exception - the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova which is still in power - only confirms the rule). This phenomenon demands separate consideration, but its components are obvious - ideological, personnel and organizational crisis. However “ orange “ revolution much more accelerated this process. Opposition between two groups of imperious elite which symbols were Yushchenko and Yanukovych put them in the center of public attention. Communists were not any more the main oppositionists (this role Yushchenko intercepted), the main defenders of the Russian-speaking population of east areas (these slogans Yanukovych intercepted). Own crisis just did not allow them to win this competitive fight.
So, we see that consequences “ velvet “ revolutions are capable to frighten the simple person irrespective of the fact how he treats authorities in power. However, it does not confuse many leaders of opposition who became “ orange dreamers “. It is possible because “ velvet revolutions “ at them are associated with return to Yeltsin`s era - time when instability and continuous change presidential “ favourites “ could give to the politician the chance to a meteoric career. From here the whole layer of political mythology about “ kind grandfather Yeltsin “ and “ terrible dictator Putin “. Meanwhile, it is enough to remember the armed solution of the conflict with the Supreme Council in 1993, removal from a position of oppositional governors, dispersal of oppositional demonstrations in the first time of presidency of Boris Nikolaevich to reflect whether it kind was “ grandfather “. The same and with comparison with the modes of other CIS countries (including worried “ revolutionary boom “) . At all claims to the existing Russian power, it is not more authoritative, than the power in the neighboring republics.
Besides, the perception " is disputable; color “ revolutions, as possible future of Russia. It is more probable that it is cancelled option of our past. The type - all fallen modes can carry to “ Yeltsin “ to type. In Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine search of an exit from the political deadlock was followed by fight for the place “ successor “ the incumbent president and split in the ranks of imperious elite. In Russia in 1999 the same there was such fight and such split (we will remember - “ The Fatherland - all Russia “ against “ Unities “) but it was solved without “ revolutionary “ shocks at a stage of parliamentary elections.
Forward-looking policies should look not in the past, and in the future and to offer version of the solution of new tasks. Who will make it, will win in the long term.]