What aspect of forecasting in psychology?
in psychological science successfully develop Recently special branch - forecasting psychology. It is characterized by consideration of psychological features of the person which allow it to carry out activities for obtaining forecasts.
In the philosophical dictionary the forecast is defined as the probabilistic judgment of a condition of any phenomenon in the future based on special scientific research (forecasting).
From the scientific point of view there are several types of forecasts: estestvovedchesky and obshchestvovedchesky; standard and search; current, long-term, short-term.
of Work of scientists - psychologists such as Surkov E. N., Brushlinsky A. V., Regush L. A., Lomov B. F., etc.) allowed to describe within psychological science the parties of predictive activity, its function in activity of the person, interrelation with personal properties.
In general predictive ability can be defined as ability to implementation of activities for forecasting.
Respectively forecasting is a knowledge of the future on the basis of conscious cogitative search which main product - knowledge of the future. The purpose of predictive activity is the forecast.
Several signs of forecasting are specified in psychological literature:
1) forecasting is the party of cognitive activity of the person;
2) the forecast as result of cognitive activity becomes possible under such circumstances as: knowledge of regularities, scientific theory, systematic research; accounting of the current information, conditions of manifestation of regularities; existence of “image“, “concept“, “deduction of statements“.
3) there is a reflection of the future taking into account probability of its approach and various temporary prospect. (Regush L. A.)
Essential feature of forecasting is its probabilistic character. I. M. Feygenberg and V. A Ivannikov, that modeling of the future cannot be certain. At the same time it is necessary to be guided by data on the real situation, using data on the past.
Authors define probabilistic forecasting as ability to compare the arriving present information with information on last experience which is stored in memory and on this basis to build hypotheses of the forthcoming events.
Forecasting is of great importance in life and work of the person. Predictive activity allows the person to avoid unpleasant situations, is closely connected with strategy of the solution of the conflicts, to create a new product or service.
Within management of municipal preschool institutions predictive activity allows to plan effectively both the activity, and activity of kindergarten taking into account last experience, the real situation and possible prospects of development in an education system.
B. F. Lomov defined forecasting of the course of events as the main function of the mentality allowing to regulate activity.
Ability to forecasting is also shown and formed in activity, has natural prerequisites of development and is caused socially - historical factors.
L. A. Regush considers forecasting process as conscious activity in which the unity of substantial, operational and motivational components is reflected.
The structure of forecasting includes knowledge which is necessary for obtaining the forecast. Obtaining the current information - her perception, storing, comparison previous and the subsequent - makes one of the bases for assumptions of the future.
When forecasting is also attracted a wide range of knowledge which seems little significant now.
In the operational party of predictive abilities psychologists allocate such actions as: establishment prichinno - investigative communications, reconstruction and transformation of representations, promotion and the analysis of hypotheses.
Natural, steady prichinno - the investigative communication existing always in time stream allows to carry out in cognitive activity transition from knowledge of the past to the present and the future.
Establishment prichinno - investigative communications happens through the analysis and synthesis. In psychology the following definitions of these concepts are given. The analysis is a mental partition of a subject, the phenomenon, a situation and identification of the elements making it, parts, the moments, the parties. Synthesis - restores whole dismembered by the analysis, opening more - less essential communications and the relations of the elements allocated with the analysis. In a subject the analysis basic elements come to light, and synthesis essential communications of whole reveal.
One more predictive action is a formulation of hypotheses. The hypothesis comprises a certain level of knowledge of the past, “objective truth“, and also knowledge which has no reliable explanation.
E. N. Surkov says that in the course of forecasting there is a checking of hypotheses to real results of the made actions. At first information collects, then it will be transformed and formed a certain plan or model of actions. Then the result which was received during the performed operations is compared to results of an anticipation.
Thus, it is possible to say that ability to forecasting is a component of integrated identity of the person and it is shown and formed in activity.
Development of predictive abilities goes from formation of individny properties of the person, his speech and cogitative development. Predictive ability is formed due to inclusion of the person in system of the social relations and professional activity.
Such features of the identity of the person as: responsibility, an orientation on the future, personal uneasiness define ability to forecasting.