Euroasian union: problems or ways of integration?
Since January 1, 2012 the major integration project - the Common Economic Space (CES) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan which is urged to bring economic development of the called states to qualitatively new level began to work. But in any new and the more so large economic association emergence of the difficulties connected with its formation is inevitable. It would be desirable to talk about them.
the Interlocutor of “Continent“ - the Belarusian economic analyst:
- What difficulties to you seem for Belarus in connection with its introduction in EEP and the movement to the Euroasian union?
- In the beginning I want to rank myself as supporters of projects in which heads of states set the purposes of rapprochement of the people for the sake of general welfare. Participation in EEP allowed Belarus to achieve the credit of Eurasian Development Bank of 3 billion dollars for a period of 10 years with a three-year grace period. The agreement on sale of the second half of the equity stake of Beltransgaz to the Russian Gazprom for 2,5 billion dollars is concluded and Belarus will pay for each one thousand cubic meters of gas in 2012 nearly 100 dollars smaller, than in 2011. Further gas prices will pay off proceeding from the gas price for consumers of the Russian Federation that can save for Belarus about 3 billion dollars annually. Belarus oil also began to receive on favorable terms. The issue of receiving the Russian credit for construction of the Belarusian NPP for 10 billion dollars is resolved.
Now about problems. One of them sees each other that the project of the Euroasian union (EAS) creation of single currency with uniform emission center is planned to replace with it national currencies of the countries of EAS. At the same time in article the prime minister - the minister of Russia V. V. Putin in “News“ is said that formation of the Customs union and EEP considers experience of the EU and other regional associations: “We see them both strong, and weaknesses. And in it our obvious advantage allowing to avoid mistakes, not to allow any reproduction of bureaucratic canopies“. So let`s and take to these “obvious advantage“, we will notice the fact of deep debt crisis in the countries of uniform euro which already threatens it with disintegration. Why creating the union, to the states to lose very important state instrument of development and regulation of national economy - the monetary system? What sense in it?
Also how the Customs union and EEP will be interfaced to the WTO in connection with the entry of Russia into this organization is represented problem. Here a selection of publications of the Belarusian mass media concerning this problem :
- “Calculations the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of RB show that concerning more than 1000 positions the Russian obligations to the WTO below current rates of the Common customs tariff of the Customs union for 7 - 15 percentage points. From them more than 50 positions are sensitive for Belarus“;
- “On 1500 positions the Russian customs obligations to the WTO below current rates of the Common customs tariff of the HARDWARE for 4 - 6,5 percentage points. From them 160 positions are sensitive for Belarus“;
- “The research center of Institute of privatization and management (scientific director I. Tochitskaya) believes that after accession of Russia to the WTO the import duties will fall with present on average 15% to 5 - 10% practically according to all nomenclature of farm vehicles“;
- “In the “Strategy of development of agricultural mechanical engineering till 2020“ developed by Minpromtorg and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation it is said that Russia`s accession to the World Trade Organization considerably will affect structure of the Russian market of agricultural machinery - in all its segments import of equipment of the known European and American brands, such as John Deere will increase, “there will be a fivefold growth of import“;
- “To Vministerstva economies of Belarus believe that “after Russia`s accession to the World Trade Organization inflow of foreign investments into Russia considerably will increase that will provide development and further modernization of the Russian enterprises and, as a result, replacement of the Belarusian production from the Russian market“.
As you can see, there are reasons for concern. And it besides that after three devaluations of Belarusian ruble (2. 01. 2009 - for 20%, 24. 05. 11 - for 56,3% and 21. 11. 2011 - for 52%) the average salary in Republic of Belarus became at the end of last year lower, than in Russia - almost three times (34,6%) and than in Kazakhstan - almost twice (53,2%). Respectively costs of a salary in the cost of the Belarusian production decreased and its competitiveness in Russia increased.
- Due to the entry into force of EEP, and earlier Customs union considerable outflow of qualified personnel from Belarus as far as this question is serious for the republic was outlined?
is a difficult question. Number occupied in the republic for last year was reduced by 20 thousand people, and according to the forecast of development of the country had to increase on 10 thousand. According to an analytical review of National Bank the lack of qualified personnel of the end of the year was noted by 18% of the Belarusian enterprises. The president of Republic of Belarus A. G. Lukashenko instructed recently to return by the end of the year salaries of Belarusians on pre-crisis level. But how to make it? In the Belarusian economy the level of its monetization by national money - about 12% to GDP is extremely low (in Japan more than 220%, in Great Britain, Switzerland, Israel - about 150%).
As there is sharply not enough stable money in economy, and coefficient of security with own current assets at many enterprises negative. Receivables of the organizations for 2011 increased by 2,2 times, creditor - by 2,4 times. For ensuring activity of the enterprise need the credits. A situation with the credits in the country difficult. A rate of refinancing of National Bank of Belarus after its decrease on February 15 - 43%. While a rate of the Central bank of Russia - 8%, European Central Bank of the European Union - 1%, U.S. Fed - 0,25%, Bank of Japan of 0 - 0,1% per annum. Respectively and the credits for the Belarusian enterprises appear much more expensive, than at their competitors.
And in the world other scheme of development of production - in general without the credits, by creation of the joint-stock companies attracting investments in exchange for actions is actively applied and essentially. At the same time at them does not arise not that percentage credit debt, but also most credit debt to banks. In Belarus there is no securities market yet. The incorporating is applied generally at sale of problem public industries. At the same time money of shareholders goes to the state budget and the created joint stock company, still, remains with need for the credits.
Comparison of options of investment and credit financing on mathematical models shows that product cost at the enterprises attracting investments into large innovative projects, for example, as for construction of the NPP, appears in two - three times lower, than at the credits for the same projects. Therefore in the world including in Belarus, economic projects of the productions capable to give profit on credit schemes of financing meet more and more seldom. It is necessary to improve urgently monetary - credit policy to break a tendency to decrease in competitiveness in economy.
Further. As appears from data of OO “Liberal Club“ of comparative research of conditions of business which is recently carried out by the Center of analytical initiatives in the countries of EEP at us it is much easier, than in Russia and Kazakhstan procedure of registration of firm, it is easier to obtain licenses and to take out production for export. But the quantity of taxes at us are twice more, than at them, and it is necessary for time for tax accounting nearly 3 times more. The total amount of tax withdrawals in Belarus makes about 62. 8% of the general profit, in Russia - 46. 9%, Kazakhstan - 28. 6%. And taxes are paid not so much from profit how many without communication with profit. And if the enterprise works at a loss, then fiscal taxes just finish it.
The legislation regulating a pricing policy at us is characterized by big inconstancy and much wider inventory, the prices for which are regulated by the state.
For the Belarusian exporters also sale of 30% of currency revenue whereas in Russia and Kazakhstan such norm was already cancelled is obligatory. Residents of Belarus unlike the Russian enterprises cannot open and accounts abroad without obtaining special permissions .
- Whether the Belarusian market is open for member countries of EEP?
- Substantially yes, we in uniform customs space and already in EEP. For 2011 the Belarusian import made 24 926 mln. dollars of the USA of Russia, but so far it is generally the energy resources, raw materials completing for an industrial output. Import from Kazakhstan for last year - 137 million dollars. For example, the Kazakhstan goods in shops did not catch sight to me yet. The prices of consumer goods in Belarus from - for inflations, devaluations, administrative keeping and the decreased purchasing power of the population yet not strongly attract competitors from Russia and Kazakhstan. But in process of liberalization of the prices the competition for the Belarusian producers in the Belarusian market will begin to increase in the country.
- In mass media there were messages that in connection with the introduction in EEP in the Belarusian market there was a shortage of consumer goods. If it takes place, then how to find a way out?
- It the phenomenon took place in Belarus to its introduction in EEP. Because and it is administrative, and devaluation of effort of producers sharply directed to export for “currency“ at every possible restriction of consumer import to the republic. At the same time still kept also the prices, from - for what they in terms of dollars, euro, zloties, lats, litas, hryvnias and Russian rubles were significantly lower, than abroad. Therefore there was also an additional “bag“ export of goods from Belarus to the adjacent states. But now, when goods prices in Belarus already raised considerably, “bag trade“ stopped. And now at the decreased purchasing power of the population, it seems to me, this problem is not actual any more.
- How to accelerate innovations and to expand participation of the countries of EEP in joint projects?
- the Recipe of acceleration of innovations in economic science is known: 1) investments; 2) purposeful improvement of taxes; 3) creation of high motivations to inventors, investors, workers. Because not the fear, but passion gives rise to innovations. All these questions are actual not only for the countries of EEP, and and for all states of the CIS. Institutes of the Commonwealth could, speaking to words in V. V. Putin`s article, “to start in the CIS … a number of concrete, clear, attractive initiatives and joint programs …“. And the main thing, I consider that the Commonwealth would have to undertake a question of creation of the general unit of account for the countries of EEP and all CIS countries, “as in Europe “ECU“ …, the currency existing for calculations in the EU before introduction of euro“ (idea and the quote of the President of Kazakhstan N. A. Nazarbayev). The interstate general currency of the CIS can be created immediately as means of economic integration on the scale of all CIS, at preservation as well all national monetary systems.
- What there can be ways of transition to the general currency of the Commonwealth?
- needs to Create the general currency of the CIS on new idea: not as credit, and as investment monetary resource . And it is necessary to carry out investment of the general currency of the CIS in the economic projects having reliable prospect and guaranteeing high profit, “… for example in the sphere of power, transport, high technologies, social development“ (the quote from V. V. Putin`s article), in exchange for actions of these projects. At the same time each bank note of the CIS will appear in the address 100 - protsentno provided with purchase of shares.
Experts know that stocks of the enterprises having reliable prospect, the guaranteeing profit and development of property grow in cost concerning any currencies. And therefore all currency of the CIS in process of implementation of the economic projects financed by the CIS will be provided more than for 100% highly liquid pledge of the actions all the time increasing in cost concerning currencies of all states and bringing to the issuer i.e. To the commonwealth, high dividends.
Any competitive project capable to make high profit will be able to apply for receiving direct investments of the CIS (through the banks authorized by it). It will open additional prospects of development of economy and growth of competitiveness of goods, works, services for the CIS countries and the Commonwealth in general.
From an economic burden for the states of the CIS which created it will turn into the most powerful world source of investments. At the expense of dividends on stocks of the invested enterprises the Interstate bank of the CIS will be able to provide with guarantee:
- a rational course of the currency concerning all world currencies;
- full self-financing of bodies and institutes of the CIS and accumulation of property of the CIS;
- transfer of the considerable sums from profit of Interstate bank of the CIS in budgets of the State Parties of the Commonwealth (instead of today`s requirements from them of contributions to the maintenance of institutes of the CIS).
From membership in the CIS for each of the states of the Commonwealth receiving investments and the sums from profit on these investments there will be a huge benefit. There will be a turn of persons interested to enter the CIS.
As all the CIS - money will be provided more than for 100% highly liquid pledge (we will repeat: in the form of stocks of the perspective and profitable enterprises increasing in cost and bringing high dividends), the currency of the CIS during short term will become the main world reserve currency. The CIS will be able to take an active position in the world market of investments, accurate and clear to position itself the largest investor, the creditor and the sponsor in the international relations.
At the same time each of the states of the CIS will keep the monetary - credit system as the most powerful lever of the state in economy, and has to strengthen it, using the same reception, as for creation of currency SNG. Namely - issues of national money for investments into effective economic projects in exchange for highly liquid actions. It will sharply increase competitiveness of national projects. And at the same time each of the states will receive the tool of a direct control of a course of the national currency of a market method.
Unless it is difficult to understand that sale of shares each National Bank will always be able quickly to take as necessary national money from the market and it to raise their market rate. And not mechanical sale of shares, as the woods on a root, and with development of IPO on each object (special projects on increase of efficiency of the enterprises and placement of shares in the market), being interested as well in legality of sources of the income at purchasers. In need of control of exchange rate each National Bank will be able to buy in reserves securities of the enterprises, commercial banks, etc., releasing the money.
Creation of stock market is an excellent way for any state quickly to expand commodity weight in the country and to withdraw flat money from circulation. And not only stocks of the enterprises, but also the earth, reservoirs, the woods can and for the benefit of society have to become goods. Certainly, with civilized responsibility of buyers for their due contents and the evidence-based property tax and the earth.
Each National Bank of the CIS should keep the reserves not in dollars and euro, and in the form of the insured packages of liquid stocks of the best enterprises and the general currency of the CIS. To the states of the CIS it is necessary to place dollars and euro urgently from reserves of National banks in perspective export-oriented investments. To provide creation of such economic projects in the country for granting them to the National Bank or Bank of the CIS (through their authorized banks), and also insurance of economic projects in necessary cases at reliable insurers owes the government of each country.
With acceptance of such strategy:
- The National Bank of each CIS country will become the main source of national investments in the state. The enterprises will be able to obtain not the credits, but investments under effective economic projects! They will not need to return the credits to banks and to pay for them percent. Here in what here a basic difference! This measure stabilizes prices for products in each country and will allow to raise a salary of workers without growth and even with decrease export the prices. Export will become really profitable for each country and will be able to grow. The enterprises will become really profitable;
- at the same time each national bank note at the time of its exit in the address will 100 - be provided protsentno with such stocks of the enterprises and banks which will grow in price rather falling dollar, euro and to bring to the state also high dividends.
The economy of each CIS country will be filled by strong national currency, not vulnerable for spontaneous inflation . Commercial banks will begin to grow in the CIS countries quickly. The credits will also become everything available, as in the developed countries (1 - 2 - 3% per annum). To sell the shares to the state or to be credited in banks - it will be the free choice of the enterprises.
The population of each CIS country, the enterprise and banks saved up billions of dollars and euro. They will immediately sell them to the state for national currency, as soon as that becomes reliable and will begin to grow concerning dollar and euro . People will cease to chase “currency“ because conditions for their other behavior will be objectively created. They will have an opportunity more favourably and it is more reliable to store savings in national money, than in foreign currency. And they will be able as in the developed countries, to buy as well stocks of the effective enterprises still to increase the benefit. They will take shares of the enterprises because those will grow in the cost of rather falling dollars and euro, and will make for owners profit above, than percent in bank on monetary deposits. At need for money, shareholders will be able freely to sell them at the exchange. To ensure accurate functioning of stock exchanges in the country is a major problem of each of the states.
As a result we will receive society with directly public character of innovatively progressing social production. In the states of the CIS and on all space of the Commonwealth the credit debt to national banks as the main reason of debt crisis will disappear in principle. The profit on the stocks which are in providing national money will become an important source of the income of state budgets. It will give the chance to the states to optimize taxes by criterion of increase of competitiveness of economy, to create taxes conditions of high motivations: to the population - to investments, workers - to effective work, profit markup of the enterprises and development of means of production.
The logic of system approach demands creation of also currency, share and commodity exchanges of the CIS which are indispensable attribute of each financial center. Projects of these global joint stock companies can become the first objects for investments of currency of the CIS and evident demonstration to the world of its success. Implementation of these projects will allow to intensify in addition interaction of the states of the CIS in the economic sphere. An economic basis of the Commonwealth has to become and it will become real: “most liberalized trade regime … based, by the way, on the principles of the World Trade Organization and aimed at any full-scale removal of barriers“ (the quote from V. V. Putin`s article).
Creation of the general currency of the CIS as powerful investment resource, and also exchanges of the CIS will allow to achieve in short time high growth rates of national economies and a standard of living of the population in each of the CIS countries and in all territory of the Commonwealth.
Department of Belarus of Institute of the CIS countries
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