Belarus in a new way: our future will be fine?
the Next economic crisis with unknown inflation, an unprecedented increase in prices three times for the last three months and the black dollar rate when already show no sign that believe an official rate though they are rather afraid to change the Belarusian candy wrappers for the American money at a real course openly nevertheless, apparently, finally and irrevocably undermined the remains of belief in the present government even at the most firm and faithful idealists.
In narrow-minded comments on the main thing the Internet - a portal of the country tut. by, at forums and in chats - whether it be under article on the website of “Komsomolskaya Pravda“ or “Sew nivy“, is read unusual and some boring unanimity: nobody trusts statements of the authorities and everything, scolding violently, are eager for changes. It also is clear, the people so many times deceived, so strongly inflated and painfully threw that the patience burst almost at all.
Those who justify not absolutely as it seems to them, sensible grain tries to find adequate actions of the authorities establishing this or that Belarusian ruble exchange rate, anyway raising petrol prices, meat and sugar in them and to talk some sense the indignant majority, somehow absolutely did not become heard. Intellectuals, with authority it is also reasoned, prove insolvency of the present power concerning the taken measures and see an exit only in change of authoritarian regime with a democratic way of board. Simple people to whom not to understanding of an economic and politological jungle, in no uncertain terms swear about salt and sugar and, as well as the intellectuals, are eager for the same.
The impression is gloomy: the people were tired of experiments and shocks, but that will be tomorrow, “later“, draw to itself in exclusively optimistical tones. (Also the fact that on economic and political subjects on the whole those who neither economists, nor political scientists are not with skill undertake to argue is remarkable).
The Libyan option of disposal of the Libyan people of the tyrant Gaddafi when the western democracies already divided the country into oil-bearing sectors, and in the country people, color revolutions in Ukraine, in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan which poured out in bitter disappointment of the people and a frank mess in these countries, the third decade of creation of fair national society in brotherly Russia perish every day, with its corruption, poverty and social instability, seemingly, do not speak to the simple Belarusian about anything. He still, on some unknown elementary logic of unearthly astrology sacredly believes that after change of the power in the country everything for one night will change for the better. As on wave of a magic wand.
This simple and sincere to got down the inhabitant, undertaking to argue on destiny of the country, remembers everything: both great history of the Belarusian people, and its culture, and its hard share. With enviable stubbornness he refers to the West with its option of democracy and dolce vita, undoubted in the opinion of the simple Belarusian, without difficulties and problems for whom most telling argument is something it seems “Tam a salary three thousand euros“ or something like that. As if it just returned from what Edinburgh or Karlsruhe about what has firm, not unfounded, representation.
And yes experience of the countries, similar in government, as well as their recent history, prompt to it, just shout in the ear which was curtailed in a tubule that full-fledged transfer of power when it was possible to delegate without serious consequences the power from one state head to another, not so often happened. And there was at all no it that there was a quiet change of one political system with another what all only benefited from. The periods of change of the power, the modes, social systems - what Chinese called time of changes and warned: if you want to damn someone, then wish it to live during changes.
Changes for which the local majority greedy is eager even at the most smooth transfer of power that on itself is already improbable, will be much more painful, than it imagines it. About it, by the way, unripe Belarusians in political squabbles are warned by more skilled Russians tired of twenty years` transition of rotten socialism to capitalism with a human face. And buffer forces for mitigation of this disaster - as strong politicians, competent economists, new managers in the country where the nomenclature elite got used to obey and execute only foreign will from above, are not visible yet. As before, patient character of the “pamyarkovny“ Belarusian will be the only buffer and rescue in such time.
In this case most of Belarusians stands up for change not only the present power, but also for a development shift. Socialist stagnation when everything is quiet and stable, let and it is poor, bothered them worse than a bitter radish, and they shout in favor of liberalization, privatization, democratization, vaguely imagining what is it.
One are going to join the elder brother - Russia, fondly believing that Russia will help even more, and its interests concerning Belarus are based only on an altruistic basis - any mercenary purposes. Others are attracted by Poland, to it rest does not give the former imperial past in which the Belarusian lands occupied considerable part. The third hope for Europe and the USA, having seduced with doubtful freedoms, forgetting that the West for the sake of these freedoms not one hundred years filled to itself cones and still rolls in social and interethnic problems. The fourth gather like Turkmenistan or Northern Korea, having forgotten that the world - long ago the small village, independently to build the life. Without minerals, on skeletons still of the Soviet technologies, lagging behind on the competitiveness in everything for about thirty years.
Many Belarusians for some reason do not see that the political field in the country of a goal, is burned out. Except for one figure - one soldier in this field. The others, as if they were not puffed up what candidates of they would not think with what good intentions concerning the political future of the country of they would not feed, simply for all the time of existence of independent Belarus were systematically oppressed, did not develop political will, did not accumulate experience and therefore are simply insolvent. And now hope that clemency of intentions and a good name wonderfully compensate this shortcoming (as, for example, the poet N. is going to revive Belarus, me it is honest, absolutely unclear. Candidates like him, honest and noble, full of the best ambitions, but deprived of political experience and will, are also those good namerenets who bones of innocent fools can pave the road know where).
Current politicians and until now skillfully use well debugged political mechanism of the Roman Caesars and Soviet leaders throughout centuries: having come to the power, first of all get rid of competitors. The second - from unreliable. The third - from all who are not pleasant to you. Who on a bare political field will be able to head the new government, to create parliament, to carry out privatization and liberalization of the industrial sphere, to modernize once strong mashinno - a construction complex, to inhale hope in agriculture, to improve the full-fledged relations with the West, to attract investments?
The ardent opponents of the present power who are eager for democratic changes and freedoms should not dump obvious from boards: in that wonderful time when there is a final transition from the present mode to a new system and the stable democracy with all implied attributes will set in, should live neither I, nor you, nor to it. After possible leaving of the present power which is not going to hand over reins of government voluntarily so, smooth transition from one form of government to another, from one head to another is improbable, there will be the next crisis, it is similar to that which was here after disintegration of the Union, and will drag on not for one year. And as there is no uniform powerful and symbolical figure, in the country where long ago got used to abuse and hope for one person, and cannot be yet, it is only necessary to remember quiet and full life.