How to make choices honest?
In the Russian Federation first too were rather fair elections. Many remember the epoch-making banquet prepared in honor of the being expected victory of the party in power of that time “the Democratic Choice of Russia“ on elections to the first State Duma in 1993. When it became clear that Zhirinovsky won, the leader Yury Karjakin exclaimed: “Russia, you went crazy!“. Light was extinguished, guests dispersed.
In December, 1995 elections to the second Duma took place, then communists won. It seemed that Zyuganov`s arrival to the power is inevitable as approach of summer. In February, 1996 the rating of the president Yeltsin was equal 6 (six!) percent. For only - only fledgy new Russian elite the time “came to pack suitcases“.
But here Chubais`s team got down to business. Thanks to the strengthened application of “an administrative resource“, preceding infarction dances of Yeltsin, boxes from under the copier with millions of dollars of the most black cash thrown in election campaign, infinite “ posters vote heart“, “Vote or you will lose“, reminders on what at communists was ruin, deficiency and turns, and other tricks, by the beginning of summer managed to raise Yeltsin`s rating to 32%. Nevertheless in the first and, apparently, last time in the history of Russia the incumbent president could not win the first round. And last time in the history of Russia (at the moment) not elections, but at least counting of votes was rather honest. Already in the second round jugglings as a result of which Zyuganov lost the victory began and Yeltsin was elected for the second term.
About these elections history kept a joke too:
In the morning on July 4, 1996 the chairman of the CEC reports on Yeltsin:
- Boris Nikolaevich, at me is for you two news - bad and good with what to begin? - Give
- voted For Zyuganov 55% of voters
- So what there can be good news now? - the depressed Yeltsin asked.
- For you - 60%!
Since then each elections became less and less honest. Let`s remember election campaign of “Unity“ in 1999. You remember how “wetted“ Luzhkov and Primakov is “telekiller“ Dorenko? And you remember Putin`s campaign in 2000 - m? Elections in 2003 - m and 2004 - m were just “referendum“ on extension of powers of “United Russia“ and Putin. All political “glade“ was tightly asphalted, for opposition (“Yabloko“, “Union of Right Forces“ and others) the humiliating percent which did not allow them to get to the Duma though earlier they steadily passed were “drawn“.
But deification of falsifications were, undoubtedly, Duma elections in 2007 and the president in 2008. The operation “successor“, anticonstitutional in essence since in the republic in principle there can be no successor, was followed by uncountable violations of the law during election campaign and terrible frauds during counting of votes. It is enough to remember how on a site where the leader of “Yabloko“ Mitrokhin voted, any voice for “Yabloko“ was not included.
To be indignant with impudence of “karuselshchik“, manipulations with portable ballot boxes, and to other nasty things it is possible for pobatalyonny vote of military units, administrative pressure upon state employees, vote with the camera long, but sharpers from the power with an unperturbable ugly face can always tell is supposedly all emotions. And where facts? Well, there and there were single violations, but in general elections were honest, - they say. Where facts of large-scale jugglings? And here we are come to the rescue by the exact science - statistics.
Statistics against schemers
Among a set of the negative innovations in an electoral system entered at Putin (cancellation of elections of mayors of the capitals and governors, a 7% barrier to parties, cancellation of elections on one-mandatory districts, cancellation of the column “against all“, the actual ban on registration in Ministry of Justice of new parties, a ban of registration of objectionable candidates for president, full monopoly of the party in power on television, almost full - on radio and in the central newspapers, replacement of Veshnyakov who kept still some remains of conscience by Churov for whom “Putin cannot be wrong“), is nevertheless one very good innovation - now all results of elections on each polling precinct are available on the Internet. We have an opportunity to take these data and to subject to the statistical analysis.
For example, to all sane people at least minimum familiar with statistics as science (and now it is taught already with 8 - go a class of school) clearly that distribution of number of polling precincts on a turnout of voters has to be close to normal. Also it has to be clear to all sane people that percent of an appearance and a share of the vote for any of parties or candidates at fair elections - sizes independent and, therefore, uncorrelated.
What I offer?to
Certainly, it is impossible to deliver independent observers on each polling precinct, but it and is not necessary! Rather good control for 10 - 20% of sites in each city. It is necessary to accept norm legislatively:
If distribution of number of polling precincts on an appearance differs from normal more than for 10% and/or coefficient of correlation of an appearance and poll given for the dominating party it is, more, for example, 0. 3, elections automatically admit invalid, and heads of all territorial election commissions and TsIKa are replaced. It will make by
any manipulations with voices obviously senseless! Certainly, this measure does not interfere with use of administrative pressure and other “pleasures“ of election campaign, but manipulation with counting of votes it will eliminate completely.
Of course, our “deputies“ will never adopt such law, but why not to be guided by it to foreign observers? If they do not recognize elections on the basis of official statistics, then the authorities will have just no place to disappear: or to go to deaf defense, being fenced off from the whole world as Lukashenko or to accept everything - such norms and to hold fair elections.