Whether replacement of dollar by other world reserve currency is possible?
It is necessary to understand one simple thing, first of all: this idea extends developing countries which seek to get bigger weight in the international financial market. First of all, of course, the speech about China and Russia. Though, for example, the Kazakh leader, very not indifferent to similar thought, - Nursultan Nazarbayev - was more frank than others in an assessment of prospects of this invention. And, therefore, accompanied abstract idea of creation of world supranational monetary unit, quite specific proposal: to begin with more attainable aims, namely, at first to enter single Euroasian currency. According to him, it is possible to start realization of this step already today.
But the most interesting consists in another: what there began implementation of the plans regional leaders with, they in the future, will inevitably face two main problems.
In - the first, for introduction of new universal currency it is necessary to convince in some way the only issuer of present reserve currency - the United States of America - to refuse a monopoly on release of unlimited number of dollars. And, in - the second to persuade the same Americans to take part in implementation of the draft of the uniform supranational bank note which the USA will not be able individually to control. Sounds enough extremely, isn`t it? But there is more to come.
Chinese speak as follows more persistently than others, but, in principle, this approach is divided by many countries: it is necessary to make issue of future world currency independent of the concrete states. And business here even not in by what financial institutions it will be operated - the main thing that its release was limited by a rigid framework.
Similar already the countries of the Eurozone managed to embody something: their monetary unit is issued on the basis of accurate and transparent rules, and (it is an important point) is easily controlled by all participants. However here it is worth to remember about such feature of the European Union is, voluntary merging of the states where the general financial system represents, only part of the delegated powers. It will be incredibly difficult to organize something similar in the course of introduction of universal currency.
Another, not less important, the moment - and in it the greatest similarity of positions of Russia, China and many other states - future single currency has to be really provided. Separate conversation - than; all rather distinctly understand that the world monetary unit of the future cannot be based on a basket from poor national currencies - it would be the absurdity. As a result of numerous discussions, most of participants agree in opinion that only a real basis for support of universal currency only gold, or the scheme “gold plus any precious metals“ is capable to become.
And here, we approach that part of reflections in which it becomes obvious: prospect of implementation of the “single world currency“ project are equal to zero. In - the main, of course because the USA will never refuse voluntarily uncontrolled and not limited issue of dollar. It is one of pillars of outlook of the American ruling elite, the basis of the economy of the United States, moreover - a basis of a way of life of Americans.
Certainly, purely theoretically, they could take such step, but only in one case - under the threat of an inevitable default. And, it which cannot be avoided, having launched the next war; when all other world tells them: “Either you join, or we will enter this currency, without you“. I will repeat, such possibility is considered, only theoretically.
However in practice it opens absolutely other way: if it is impossible to enter absolutely reliable and provided world currency, then why not to try some country or gruppestran to enter own currency - regional? If reserves for its release and providing are available, then no consent of the USA for this purpose will be required - everything depends, only on own opportunities and ambitions.
But what destiny, in that case, expects the American dollar? Very deplorable, it is necessary to recognize. Even his devoted supporters (outside the United States) are not present and will make a reservation in the analytical reports: the only reason for the seeming lack of alternative of dollar - absence at present monetary unit, equivalent to it on “weight“. In turn, emergence of such currency capable to render the real competition will inevitably cause crash of dollar, and, prompt.
Of course, in America are perfectly familiar with a real situation and for a long time count prospects and various options of succession of events. It is enough to remember their of the first (and very nervous) reaction to emergence, only rumors the future introduction of new world currency. One more indicative example, all of us could observe at a recent meeting of “twenty“: despite of tone and sense of unofficial talk, the decisions made there were directly directed to support of the weakening dollar and the bent American economy as main world consumer. In particular, decided to increase capitalization of the International Monetary Fund in order that it could distribute more credits to the “problem“ countries. It is easy to guess, than its will fill - quite right, dollars.
And, at last, it is necessary to mention in the finishing part of this review oh, perhaps, the main barrier getting in the way of introduction of single universal currency. Strictly speaking, this reason concerns introduction anything in planet scales. Today it is absolutely impossible to imagine the international institute (not very well, political or financial) which would be equally fair concerning all the participants. It is very well traced on the example of the UN - only very naive person can consider it as the organization, equally loyal to all countries. For all that that it is initially arranged on such principles which are urged to provide the greatest possible equality. It is much more difficult to introduce something similar in the financial sphere, and in the existing conditions - it is almost unreal.
Summing up the result of everything stated above, it is possible to note how inevitability, return in this or that type of the notorious “gold standard“. As, actions of present American administration - huge emission not of provided money in world economy - conducts only to one. To destruction of the existing international system of payments: the depreciating dollar will pull for itself all freely convertible currencies - they just will not have resources to support higher course.
Yes, it also is, that “race of devaluations“ on which financial analysts are not tired to argue. However way of an exit from it, all the same, only one: it is necessary to get rid of virtual money and securities. Only having returned the values, including, and currency, in a normal state - not virtual - it is possible to regain the trust to them on a global scale and to think of introduction of a certain universal monetary unit.