Planning … or formation of the competitive environment.?
Transition of our economy to the real market relations demanded cardinal reconsideration of a role, the place and value of planning in system of state regulation of economy and competitive management of the last. Unfortunately, as well as in all former Soviet Union, insufficiently full scientific ensuring process of reforming brought in the Republic of Kazakhstan, and still leads, to unreasoned copying of mechanisms of regulation of development of the states with stable economies. It, in turn, is fraught with destruction of communications in system of planning, instead of their high-quality change and adaptation to market conditions of competitive economy.
The inaccuracy of such actions is obvious, the initiative not only in this direction, but even in restoration of positive experience of prereform years is not shown until recently. Still, need of planning on macro - and meso - levels is suppressed, and the system of planning at the level of firm is focused on the western experience.
It led to confusion in categorial terminology and a conceptual framework. Need of replacement of “imperfect domestic system“ with “strategic planning“ which on closer examination appears “the old “domestic“ planning which is well forgotten“ is persistently declared. If attentively to analyse V. Leontyev`s heritage, then in fact his model “expenses - release“ - there are a direct regulation and planning socially - necessary expenses of work.
In these conditions, in our opinion, it would be natural to begin with specification of the basic concepts of system of planning. It is necessary to recognize from the fact that during planned activity are developed: development strategy; forecast; long-term, medium-term and current plans.
For economy of Kazakhstan, and for our region, in particular, in connection with the formation of The Forced Industrial Development program actual there is a planning of competitive advantages for the purpose of increase of efficiency of economic potential.
It is offered to understand system of the plans allowing to carry out the organization of production as strategy, in scales of the country, branch, the region, firm, and achievement of the planned purposes in conditions of the competitive environment. Long-term, medium-term, current plans differ on the horizon of planning, degree of accuracy, specification of plans. Initiators of destruction of domestic system of planning for justification of the position often leaned on insufficiently reasonable provisions.
So, earlier planning was considered as directive, rigid, static. Meanwhile already in 20 - e years of the last century when developing plans the factor of uncertainty and the accounting of competitive advantages taking into account decrease socially - necessary expenses of work was considered.
Then there were two concepts of effective planning:
- the first concept - the plan as system of the target tasks expressed in quantitative indices;
- the second concept - the plan as system of the prospects realized through advantages of competitive regulation of economy.
And though for ideological motives the priority was given to the first concept, they as the academician L. Abalkin fairly noted, “are not the antipodes and interconnected and supplementing each other with methods“.
In domestic science there was a belief that withdrawal from planning from “reached“, at the same time planning process not discrete, but continuous is necessary. Parameters of the plan have probabilistic character. In principle it means that to perceive the developed state plans only as the instrument of administration and command - deep delusion. They, in essence, consistently approached indicative plans. Indicative planning represents process of formation of system of parameters (indicators) characterizing a state and development of an economic entity within carried out a sotsialnok - economic policy.
In modern conditions plans of economic entities have to and can be indicative. At the same time it is necessary to refuse negative interpretation of the term “directivity“ in relation to planning. Any approved and accepted plan, in a sense, is directive. Only the implemented plan can play the coordinating, mobilizing, organizational role that does not exclude, and predetermines need of its continuous adjustment taking into account the changing economic situation, emergence of new data and competitive installations. During realization of functions of system of planning, the solution of a wide range of the tasks promoting effective development of economy is provided. Only on the basis of evidence-based plans perhaps purposeful effective impact on economic processes.
Without planning proportionality of development which is understood as such ratios of branches, fields of activity, productions at which the fastest rates of macroeconomic development in long prospect, achievement of balance of production and consumption of production and services in the country, regions, development of labor markets, the capital, the earth are provided cannot be provided.
Planning includes forecasting of market conditions and its dynamics, justification of priorities in development at all levels of managing, formation of progressive structure of a social production.
The state is obliged not only to influence business development, but also to cooperate systematically with the capital, developing production, social infrastructure, assisting it in an entry into the world market.
Now when about 70 leading companies of the world make nearly 50% of all industrial output of the country, real bases for coordination of intentions of the state and leaders of economy on the basis of the national plan are created. Improvement of the market relations demands that the state in management of economy relied on use of two regulators: plan and market.
Evolution of the market relations, their roles and the place in a world civilization is traced in publications of the corresponding member NAN RK N. Mamyrov. The author notes that the changes which happened in the world express the tendencies which are diametrically antiput to the recited blossoming of market system. Here process of replacement of the market regulator of economic processes is available.
Balance of reproduction in the advanced countries is provided now not so much with self-regulating market forces, how many development of large, really national corporations, is state - corporate economy and competitive planning.
Market regulation assumes activity of the competing subjects, formation of a ratio “the price - quality of goods“, independence of economic entities in decision-making. In conditions it is state - there is no corporate economy of such regulation. In concerns there are no equilibrium market prices. The prices are formed according to the scheme “costs plus“, that is the same as they were formed in the Soviet economy in due time. At the same time reproduction not only consumer goods, but also work, the capital will centrally be organized. So, for example, the nation-wide policy on providing a full employment is legislatively fixed in the USA.
In new macroeconomic system instead of the two-unit market relation “demand - production“ is formed the mechanism including four links:
- production of technologies which predetermine demand is formed by needs of buyers;
- activities of business for leading of the buyer to “independent“ making decision on purchase of goods;
- preparation of will of allegedly “independent“ buyer regarding acquisition of a product;
- actually production, delivery of goods.
This system of interaction of production and consumption is regulated not by traditional market forces, but complete system state - to the corporate organization of national economy. Despite antimonopoly measures, merge of productions amplifies. Practice of secret agreements between the concerns making related production that brings price monopoly is widespread. The market competition between concerns, in essence, is absent.
The present competition carries soft, almost planned, system character. Process of internal integration of national economies is connected with unprecedented concentration of production. In the advanced countries the prevailing industrial output is provided with limited groups of concerns.
The modern concern brings the highest organization which does not have similarity to market “independence“ in the concentrated productions. These are vertically integrated structures covering long, the planned chains of productions with application of high technologies.
For example, each industrial concern integrates about 0,16% of industrial production of the country into the USA; 0,2% of GDP are the share of each of 200 corporations on average. Each of informal manufacturing sectors integrates on average 0,6 - 0,8% of an industrial output of SPIA. Such structures, as well as the concerns forming them, it is necessary to carry to macroeconomic. Products which are turned out by each concern technologically are a closing stage of a set of production streams at its high concentration.
Each supercorporation finds the increasing interest in functioning of other supercorporations and national economy in general. The international experience demonstrates that during the crisis periods, at critical stages of development the state undertakes the solution of significantly more wide range of tasks, interfering with free market “will“.
So, F. Roosevelt, applied Keynesian. the recipes including production planning, increase in the budgetary expenses, expansion of domestic market.
L. Erhard at restoration of economy of post-war Germany was an opponent of “conducting“ by business, but in the presence of the firm economic policy allowing maneuvering by resources, production in Germany grew for 1949 - 1955 by 3 times.
Unfortunately, Kazakhstan, the former republics of the USSR, and also country of Eastern Europe not adequately managed to use this experience. Transformation of a planned economy in market, orientation to recommendations of the IMF, especially in liquidations of planned bodies, deregulation of economy for the purpose of assistance to emergence of the market, turned back huge losses for our country.
Visually a conclusion of economists - classics that prosecution of own benefit, so far as is not present the corresponding economic mechanism was confirmed, this regulation at the same time is not entered into a certain course by the relevant state institutes of development, then arises and is guaranteed - chaos. At one of annual sessions of the World bank and the IMF which was taking place in Hong Kong the full nesostoyateljnost of “the free market without borders“, helplessness and nonprofessionalism of management in Kazakhstan, on the one hand, and success of the Chinese experience of regulation of economy - with another was stated. It is possible to consider that failures of economic reforms are mainly caused by refusal of our state of many necessary organizationally - the economic functions regulating planning.
Researchers usually carry to the most important problems of state regulation and indicative planning:
- definition of public requirements;
- identification of possible material, labor and financial resources, competitive, and, above all effective for
- justification of the most rational directions of use
- ensuring balance and development between branches, types
of production, between the economic region of the country;
- increase of efficiency of use of resources.
So for example, in economy of China in public sector directive planning at essential easing of its rigidity is kept, in non-state sector interaction of the plan and the market is provided. The results achieved from 1978 to 1998 are demonstrated by such fact: VVN grew by 5,7 times; the annual gain made - 9,6%. Features of the system of planning realized in the country considerably are defined by development strategy. Post-war experience of development of economies of the USA, Western Europe, Japan and Hugo - East Asia is an experience of successful use of system of economic planning, programming and budgeting (PPB), in implementation of structural modernization of economy and increase of its competitiveness.
Use of the specified system of planning, forecasting and budgeting can be successfully realized only in the conditions of achievement of a sustainable development by the country as the PPB function, first of all is, according to plan - programmable structural modernization of economy for its transfer to the new more developed and competitive system state.
According to the PPB system which characteristic is provided in article of e. N of Page. Kasymova, the national economic mechanism and system of indicative planning and regulation of economy it is necessary to build by the principle of branch programming of economy with allocation of the priority programs capable to provide competitiveness and competitive advantages of branch.
The basis of the plan has to be made - in - the first, the long-term target programs of structural modernization of branches of economy, various duration for terms and importance for priorities based on the developed schemes of perspective development of productive forces of the country.
Its second element - the kgosudarstvenny budget of the republic (developed annually) in which expenses on implementation of the state target programs of structural modernization of economy are provided.
The third part of the plan, has to set standardly - the legal regime of functioning and modernization of the enterprises and other subjects of managing fixed generally in acts. The last component of systematic regulation of economy - standards and rules of managing fixed:
• in target programs in that measure in what they concern them;
• in the state budget in the form of compensations, privileges and subsidies;
• in the acts of the general character providing the purposeful course of reproduction calculated on prospect;
• in the special acts regulating flowing socially - an economic situation regarding establishment of the minimum limits of the income of the population, regulation of anti-recessionary processes.
In Kazakhstan for the present there is no full clarity concerning this the country of a problem, major for the future. In scientific literature several alternative options of strategy (scenarios) of development which with some conventions can be united in the following are considered:
Preservation of the existing tendencies in development means:
a) minimum budget; financing mainly at the expense of customs duties and the VAT;
b) “weak“ national currency necessary for maintenance of competitiveness of export branches;
c) minimum foreign investments;
d) rather dynamic development is export - the focused allied industries at stagnation of other branches;
e) lack of growth of the real income of the population;
e) preservation of “centers“ of the main Kazakhstan companies outside the country;
g) unlimited outflow of the capital abroad.
At the same time corruption of the government administrative institutions which is promoted by sale of natural resources exerts impact on economic development of system.
For renewal of market reforms as special scenario, rigid control over observance of the legislation, the solution of institutional problems is necessary. But this way is considerably discredited. Shortcomings this scenario - economic dictatorship cannot but be followed by political. In this situation formation of the supercentralized model of economic development with all costs including strengthening of the international isolation of economy of Kazakhstan is required.
Concerning the direction of further development of economy of Kazakhstan distinguish two approaches:
- supporters of the first offer break till the way other than evolutionary. They claim that Kazakhstan is ready not only to enter harmoniously new model of civilized development, but to become under certain conditions the leader of this process, has all conditions and resources for creation of a prototype of the model of future civilization which is based on the principles of stability and combining the reasonable relation to production, consumption and environment;
- supporters of the second approach stand on positions of gradual development, considering that the economy of Kazakhstan significantly differs from economies East - the Asian countries 80 - kh - 90 - x 20 - go centuries. It represents the complex economic system possessing though the outdated, but rather universal production potential. Consumption level and capacity of the internal market, especially in the field of high-quality goods and high technologies, remain very considerable. Besides, qualification the worker of force is also significantly higher, than in the majority of the Asian states in the years preceding the beginning of their accelerated development. This way promises slower growth rates, but demands smaller investments.
The researches conducted by us allow to draw a conclusion that the effective and expected effective development of economy in our region is possible only taking into account realization of work on certification of economic potential and definition of priorities in competitive economy East - the Kazakhstan area.
The most acceptable would be the combination of the called approaches: on the basis of loading of production potential to provide increase in production of goods and services. Saturation of domestic market a domestic production, concentrating the resources accumulated on this basis on the priority, most perspective and innovative directions of development of cluster sectors, for the purpose of transition to new technological ways, with expansion of konkurentosposposobny niches for economy of Kazakhstan in the world market.
The associate professor “Economy and business“, the head of the Center innovatively - technological business of VKRU Kartashev A. A.