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What will global warming end with?

Already nobody denies that on the planet there came global warming. According to forecasts of scientists, in the next years global sea level will rise by 1,5 meters. But it is the forecast for the next years. And what will occur if process of thawing of glaciers goes as avalanche? Development of a similar situation can happen, of course, not in the next years, and within the next centuries when ours live a pra - a pra - great-grandsons.

At Institute of calculus mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences the large-scale, not having analogs in Russia researches of dynamics of climate are carried out. Modeling of dynamics of climate on the planet in the XIX-XXII centuries is carried out. Today it is the only Russian mathematical model considering the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean.

As the director of IVM Russian Academy of Sciences academician Valentin Dymnikov told, for reproduction of climate of the XIX-XX centuries and modeling of climate of the XXI-XXII centuries the time course of concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide), the volcanic and anthropogenous aerosol, sunlight observed still and also the forecast of change of concentration of radiation active gases according to the scenario of moderate development was set. At the same time it was considered that the content of carbon dioxide by 2100 has to grow approximately twice in comparison with 2000, and within the 22nd century its concentration, as well as other gases, will not change.

After year of titanic works of people and processors it became clear that the IVM Russian Academy of Sciences model which considers 1 billion various parameters precisely reproduces dynamics of already happened climatic changes and repeats an absolute value of the warming observed in a century 0,6 - 0,7 degrees. Precisely also dynamics of warming in a century - for example, its delay in 1950 - 1970 is reproduced.

Having passed examination past, the model predicts future. According to the academician Valentin Dymnikov, at the end of the XXII century in comparison with present time there will be a warming more than by 3 degrees. Especially landslide warming will happen in the XXI century. As for geographical distribution of change of temperature, in 200 years the maximum warming will happen in the Arctic. Near the North Pole in summertime long-term ices will practically disappear and will appear only in the winter. Considerably temperature in midlatitudes of all continents of the Northern hemisphere will increase (by 4 - 6 degrees), air over oceans and in the Southern hemisphere will become warmer less (by 2 - 3 degrees).

Almost all Western Siberian plain will disappear under water. Black, Caspian and Aral exhausting - will connect and will spread. The most fertile will be filled in the State of Kuban and Stavropol Territory. Under water there will be also a northern capital - St. Petersburg. Other countries will also receive the. For example, almost all fertile lands of China will be flooded. Such states as Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Denmark - will stop the existence and will become underwater kingdoms. However, the coastline of the Western, Northern and Southern Europe will change slightly. A set of islands of the Caribbean Region and Indonesia will also appear under water. The territory of Australia will be halved by almost peculiar gulf reminding an ellipse in a form. Flooded there will be most fertile lands of deltas of Nile, Amazon, Yangtze, Mekong. In these territories 7 of 10 inhabitants of the planet live.

There will be gradual shifts of timberlines of a moderate zone to the North and reduction of their area. The area of deserts will increase by 17%. With undeveloped economy (Africa, Asia) which are especially susceptible to the slightest climate changes it means hunger and epidemics for the countries.

Warming means distribution of tropical insects - carriers of dangerous infections. So, Asian tiger mosquitoes will pass into more northern areas, having expanded habitat. They are carriers of hemorrhagic fever which claims the lives of 5 percent infected.

And article some too gloomy turned out. But you be not upset, maybe, all this also will not occur, you know what hydrometeorological center, exact at us. On the materials www. inauka. ru (S. Leskov) and www. inventors. ru