What was shown by Davos 2009?
the Davos summit showed that though all countries sit in one boat which here - here will sink in a heavy sea, the unified plan of rescue cannot be. What - that the countries have to first jump out, reach the saving coast and drag up for a rope the boat with others “ passengers “ not able to float and row too. The USA and China will become such countries - rescuers of world economy for 100%.
Now in the United States, in community of businessmen and bankers who were inspired with election of the new president is very popular the slogan - “ first in - first out “ i.e. “ the first entered crisis - the first from there and we will leave “.
of the USA it will make due to possession nearly 40% world “ high “ technologies, and China at the expense of huge human resources (8% are planned for 2009 (!) GDP gain).
A that Russia? And Russia, from it 0,2 - 0. 3% of the world " technologies; find fault - flew “ it is necessary to sit quietly in the boat and to wait for rescue, it is good in 2009, and that the gold and exchange stock can not be enough (from $600 billion in January, 2009 there were $380 billion.) . And, the ruble dropped by 30% in relation to dollar, fall of GDP and 13% official inflation in 2009 is expected. Now official unemployment - 2,2 million people, and informal, by different estimates, from 4 to 6 million. Expenses of the budget for this year are planned 11 trillion rubles, and the income will be 6 trillion - a difference in 5 trillion, - for the first time we will have for many years a budget deficit and the sequester (reduction). Stock market of the USA “ falling “ the whole 2008, as a result was reduced by 33%, and Russian for several weeks “ falling “ - for 75%. In the market Forex is “ iron “ rule: to falling of national share indexes there corresponds falling of national currencies that now and is observed with ruble.
Sitting in this “ to the semi-sunk boat “ Russia should think that time “ freebies “ came to an end. The country lived 8 years, even not due to increase of oil and gas production, and due to increase in prices for them. In 1985 when the USSR began to collapse, oil in the Soviet export made 50%. Last year, in the Russian export, oil and gas made more than 70% - here result of 20 years of the Russian market transformations. Speculative growth of shares, game - to all this came to capitalizations the end. The end of pre-crisis world globalization came. After rescue, having got out to the coast, it is necessary to go other course, a course of refusal of protectionism and excessive intervention in economy, a course of creation of advanced technologies.