How it is terrible to live? And Putin can is cleverer than it seems?
Happy birthday Putin V. V.! By its favourite holiday of MICEX less than 800 points.
In the previous article “ As the USA is going to throw mankind “ I tried to tell moderately popularly to the limited knowledge of crisis and consequences for Russia. I suggest to listen for a tone to video interview of - on Kudrin - touches deeply unambiguously (plan. ru/? p=1613). It is a pity, but all “ Cassandra “ eventually are right.
Crisis continues! Even blind people and deafs it is aware of problems. Newspapers exult - circulation is bought up with a bang! The real estate falls, the dollar grows, every man for himself. And on the " TV; Tranquility only tranquility! “
Our dear “ ingenious managers “ that is Oligarchs rush about between the Kremlin and London, under legs the earth burns. Marzhin - a stake approaches. Already caught up with Deripaska - lost shares of the company of Magn and 1. 5 billion dale.
Newspapers and sycophants convinced Captains of our Bourgeoisie of own insight and genius. That a business assessment in 8 - 10 EBITDA it forever. In attempts to occupy higher “ inflatable “ a line in a rating Forbes, Deripaska, Potanin, Yevtushenkov put under the credits of a stock of the companies (up to controlling stakes). On the obtained credits took still shares as own company within “ corporate wars “ and did “ perspective investments “ (bought up for expensive the companies worldwide). Repeating for great heads of the largest of investment company played the game “ whose pyramid is higher “ - buying oblition on proceeds of credit, and then placing them in the Repo. Now the Renaissance is sold for 500 million instead of 4 billion. And at most of brokers huge losses and reduction of personnel. For example Yuniastrum the bank and its management company depreciated shares of the funds for 90%.
Actually they did in accuracy most too, as everyone “ stupid “ American. While the housing rose in price, it was possible on mortgage money “ to live fast “.
Now Newsdealers enjoy small revenge when still it is possible “ to mock “ over the powers that be. Tell everything that Deripaska`s Debt 14 billion. Potanin`s debt 6 billion. Yevtushenkov`s debt 7 billion etc. In chocolate literally two persons of Mamut (3 billion cash) and Prokhorov (20 mlr. cash).
Oligarchs ran ran. And after meetings with the president, voskhvalat our great and perspicacious., It seems, Putin was deeply moved and promised 50 bln. dollars on repayment of the credits at foreign banks on which our Oligarchs were burned (on market conditions). A result - in 6 months. in Russia the share of the state in economy will grow by 30% - oligarchs will bring to Putin all the actions. If of course the market is not restored.
And to us that, citizens? You will think sirs fight, forelocks crack. And that expensive - beloved that our favourite government headed by the Ingenious prime minister - rushes in billions to the right and on left. 50 billion to oligarchs, 100 billion to banks on liquidity maintenance. 20 billion on support of military industrial complex and there still pensioners, state employees and many, many others. Reserves that not “ RUBBER “. Their ONLY 600 billion dale.
Already spent 170 billion a dale. Such rates by July, 2009 nothing will remain.
Unchecked rumors go that Russia can be downgraded from - for sharp reductions of GCR.
With what it threatens the person with a salary of 50 thousand rubles and above, bought on credit the car or the apartment?
Dollar rate will return to level 32 - 35 rub for dollar. It is the only way to offset losses of the budget from falling of prices of oil. The mathematics simple dropped by 50% oil, it is necessary to lower exchange rate by 50%. And the quantity of rubles in the budget will not change. At the same time, the problem of pensioners, and other state employees will be solved. And that napovyshat salaries so that in federal state unitary enterprises of a salary is higher, than in commercial structures.
Therefore who on gathered Everything the credits in dollars, I RECOMMEND as soon as possible everything to extinguish, especially to fans of a mortgage. Or at least to pass to rubles.
Change of the direction of the movement of exchange rates, right after the help to Oligarchs, will allow “ to settle “ set of problems. Debts to the budget will be satisfied in rubles. The real estate in dollars will fall in price, and in rubles will remain at the former level. Actions in dollars will not change, and in rubles will strongly grow and compensate losses to the state banks. Salaries to return to the Russian Federation to “ to common sense “ in terms of dollars. On “ become cheaper “ utilities. Generally everything will be well great marchioness (years through two).
And now coming back to American “ to burzhuina “ than they will have a good time Putin so far rastranzhirivat gold - currency reserves? Very just worldwide graduates of MVA carry out investments in the most reliable papers in the world - bonds of the American Treasury. And that is very important in short-term 3 - 5 years. So they were taught at school, at institute and just there is no place to invest money more. Even gold and oil become cheaper for 30 - 40%.
Now present syabya on the place of the new U.S. President (Obama or Mackay it is not important). You owe the whole world of 11 trillion dollr (3 GDP of the USA). The debt is issued in the form of bonds. for 30 - 40% with a short repayment period. Your predecessor of g - N Bush at the expense of the state redeemed debts of the private companies and banks for 1. 5 trillion dollars.
That it is simpler: to raise taxes, to reduce expenses and to satisfy a debt together with percent or to carry out “ innovation “ - exchange “ short “ papers on “ long “ (years 50 under 1. 5% per annum)? In my opinion the answer is obvious. The benefit of examples such novatsy sloklko is necessary Russia, Brazil and the USA in 1980kh. The probability is generally high that Russia will lose the “ highly reliable “ gold and foreign exchange reserves in June - July, 2009. More definitely will not be able to use them the next 50 years.
And there or the donkey will die or America will grow rich.
America in reality risks nothing. Yes there will be a crisis and bankers will continue to jump from windows, well so there is a lot of bankers. But the amerikansy taxpayer will be happy (personally for him nothing will change). there will be money for pensions of the baby - bumer (due to inflation and release of the budget from the current payments). The governments foreign on bukhtit and will cease (them three times threw only last century). For the most loud there will be a system of the credits on the security of 50 summer bonds with discount of 70%.
Also it will be possible to start everything with a clean slate. So already was after disorder of the bretenvudsky agreement, after a great depression.
So Putin can he is not so wrong spending reserves so far they still count for something? It can really the genius.