Recovery from the crisis ofis offered It is known - money in Belarus depreciates. They had already two denominations (1994 - by 10 times, 2000 - in 1000) and two devaluations (2009 - for 20%, in May of this year - for 56%). For the first half of 2011 the official rate of Belarusian ruble fell in relation to US dollar on 64. 83%, to euro - on 80. 44%, to Russian ruble - on 80. 22%.
In 20 years of sovereignty of Belarus (since June, 1992) Belarusian ruble exchange rate officially went down to US dollar from 1,692 to 5000 rubles (on 20. 07. 2011) taking into account two denominations - in 29,5 million times! Big, than in Belarus, rate of depreciation of national money for the last 20 years was only in one country of the world - in Zimbabwe, from - for what its authorities in 2009 declared the temporary termination of the address of national money, having officially allowed circulation in the country of currencies of other states so far.
The prices grow, salaries do not increase. In what the reason?
We often complain that we live beyond means, we consume more, than we make. But whether so it?
It is known that production of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Belarus exceeded many years ago the level which was in the country before collapse of the USSR. Growth rate of GDP in the country was the last decade one of the highest in the crisis world: on average more than 7% a year, in 2010 - m - 7,6%, in a half-year 2011 - m - 11%.
However, having compared growth of the monetary income of the population, for example, salaries, and an increase in prices for products in the country, we will see paradox: today for a salary the population of the country can buy consumption products significantly less, than in 1990.
As we see, only vodka and wine at us became cheaper. And it without taking into account that the free housing in the country does not exist any more and that the considerable part of medical and educational services too for all became paid.
The reason is that the cost of national money all the time decreases concerning the cost of money of other states. Depreciation of national money intensifies such export of goods and other values from which the country grows poor. To the country instead of goods, values, works, services there is also a stream nalichno - non-cash monetary symbols of other states which, escaping from inflation, accumulate the population, the organizations and banks.
Demand gives rise to the offer. On it also constructed strategy of “great wise men“, centuries of the “natives“ delivering on the market the goods - “currency“ in exchange for values.
From 2000 the quantity of dollars and euro in the world doubled. Nobody knows how many their in paper form accumulated on hands at the population of the country. In a non-cash look on bank deposits and in the form of securities in foreign currency on 1. 06. 2011 their volume made the sum of 35,3 trillion rubles at an official rate of ruble. It is 5% more, than the volume of the income of the state budget of Belarus for 2011 and 1,2 times more, than all volume of national money in republic economy for the same date.
And at this time both the US dollar, and euro also depreciate. Since 2000 the dollar went down in cost almost by 6 times (from 272 to 1607 dollars for ounce on 19. 07. 11). From the sums in currency which saved these years in Belarus there were only ~ 17%, the rest completely disappeared, as at natives of a certain Papua.
Sociological polls show that the increase in prices in the country most of all disturbs the population. The prices in Belarus grow in the basic only because national money as a measure of the prices depreciates .
Escaping from depreciation of national money, people and the organizations, already having experience of considerable losses, take this money from places of storage, withdraw from bank accounts and buy stabler currency. And if it is impossible, then buy everything that is possible for the future. From what the speed of the address of money sharply increases in economy, and the quantity of the goods offered for this money sharply decreases. And the prices grow in sedate ( cubic! ) dependences on excessive release of money in the address.
Due to the last sharp devaluation of ruble of the price in the country began to grow quickly. From - for lack of an opportunity to buy foreign currency, the population began to snatch away goods. There was a commodity deficiency. Governing bodies began to keep the prices administratively. It led to losses at producers of goods. Those began to reduce the deliveries to domestic market. At the same time and administratively, both devaluation, and inflation of national currency of effort and motivation of producers directed to export of products for the sake of inflow of currency, at every possible restriction of consumer import to the country. From - for what the quantity of goods in Belarus naturally began to decrease.
And from - for devaluations and administrative deduction of the price in Belarus in terms of dollars, euro, zloties, lats, litas, hryvnias and Russian rubles were significantly lower, than abroad. And therefore there was also a mass speculative export of goods to the border countries.
Wishing to increase inflow to the country of currency, the authorities of Belarus were resolved, as to Zimbabwe, use of foreign currency in the country as an instrument of payment for important goods of mass demand that also reduced the volume of the goods sold for Belarusian rubles. All this
only promotes depreciation of national money. And if we compare dynamics of quantity of national money in Belarus to the similar schedule of any country having the high level of competitiveness of economy, then we will be convinced: quantity of national money in Belarus in relation to its GDP (koef.) it appears monetizations of economy 10 times less than in Japan, Switzerland, Great Britain, Israel, the USA and other countries. Two orders below - by quantity of national money in economy per capita. At the same time Belarusian rubles also quickly depreciate in relation to currencies of these countries (fig. 4. 2).
The same problem is characteristic also of Russia, Ukraine and other countries.
We came to the most important problem of all CIS countries.
Owing to mistakes in monetary - the credit sphere our enterprises obtain the credits in banks under much higher percent, than their competitors. With a new rate of refinancing in Belarus this percent will be not lower than 20 and more annual interest rates in any way. These credits and percent include our enterprises in the price of the production, works, services. And Japan, the USA, the European Union, other countries credit the producers under 0 or 1-2 - 3% per annum. And main - in the world it is found for a long time and other scheme of financing of production is actively applied essentially: sale of shares of the enterprises, with transfer of money not in the budget, as in Belarus, and in authorized capitals of the joint-stock enterprises. Foreign competitors work with
according to the investment financial scheme long ago. As joint-stock companies, they develop due to investments in exchange for actions. At this scheme of financing they at all have no credit debt to banks and percent on such debt. Therefore the financial cost intensity of our enterprises appears in two - three times higher, than at competitors is (fig. 9).
And therefore competitiveness of production of our enterprises of equal quality is lower than foreign. Competitive prices are kept only by a low wage of our workers. Our many enterprises sell production with losses, increase debt, need the new and new credits .
Net loss of the Belarusian enterprises and stocks of their production in warehouses began to increase. Search of the foreign credits, loans, investments became strategy of National Bank and Government. Such strategy in the world are known, they are applied by many countries. But in all such countries , including the USA, problems only accrue. All of them increase the external debt and subordinate the economy to financial strategy of their creditors and investors . Moreover, giving the credits, loans, purchase of shares in the world is often applied as raider reception for the purpose of occupation of the perspective enterprises and resources in other states. For example, to create from air and to transfer Belarus the amount in 30 billion dollars for “Belaruskali“, the Federal Reserve System of the USA in case of her interest will need some minutes...
The world reached a deadlock with such financial policy. But it is useless and not structurally to blame someone for it. “It is necessary to have courage to use own mind“ (I. Kant). And the main thing how to get out of that situation in which there was Belarus? And not only it.
The president of Belarus told recently: “ If who knows other way - offer “. Oppositional Belarusian newspaper “ National will “ published the unique article “ Recovery from the crisis? It is possible! “. The analysis of the reasons of inflation and an increase in prices in the country, and also offers in article on recovery from the crisis will be acceptable, perhaps, for all states subject to financial crisis.
It is interesting that this article was offered the presidential newspaper " in the beginning; SB - Belarus today “. But as its hl. the editor, the famous Belarusian wise man and dear presidential senator in Council of the republic P. I. Yakubovich, despite repeated the address to it of the author, one of candidates for president of Republic of Belarus on elections 2010 Mr. Viktora Tereshchenko, did not state on it (still) the opinion (“ yes “ “ is not present “ as it is accepted at wise men, the Padishah), article did not speak yet and it was transferred in “ National will “. And according to the solution of hl. the editor I. P. Seredich right there it was also published in future issue of this newspaper. Whether it will be heard in Belarus now - inscrutably. It is known: “ No reasonings are able to specify to the person a way if he does not want to see it “ (Romain Roland, writer, Nobel laureate).
In full article is stated on com/zenyi. htm