Rus Articles Journal

What will rise in price in new year?

Whatever one may do, approach new year. And whatever one may do, rises in price to us, Russians not to avoid. So will rise in price and this time what is predicted by experts and what simple people think of? I offer the short review of key aspects of our life.

According to the forecast Goldman Sachs next year the stock market of the USA will grow by 20% in a year, the dollar will rise in price for 5%. American share " index; Standard & Poor`s can rise by 20% within 12 months, and grow up dollar because rates of a recovery of the economy of the USA exceed forecasts of experts, the chairman of the board of directors " considers; Goldman Sachs Asset Management Jim O`Neill.

According to the expert, growth rates of stock market of the USA can exceed rates of growth of the markets of other regions of the world. The Federal Reserve System (FRS) will probably carry out a new stage of quantitative stimulation in case the program realized now is not able to push the American economy to growth, he considers.

US dollar exchange rate, by J. O`Neill`s estimates, can rise by 5% from the current level. The probability that Euro will stop the existence is not equal than zero any more, he notes.

The Chinese government can put in the plan for the next five years lower growth rates of GDP, than now - 7% that will become shock for the raw markets - the expert notes.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management is division of " bank; Goldman Sachs Group Inc. working in the sphere of management of assets. As of September 30 the company operated assets about 820 billion dollars.

Considering a tendency of the last three years to increase of rates of a rise in price of journey to the subway, it is logical to assume that in 2011 the rise in price can make about 20%. To all appearances, since January 1, 2011 the cost of 1 trip to the place can quite appear 30 rubles or even more.

Analysts do the high forecast for inflation and expect that food prices will be affected by a drought from - for an increase in prices for products. Food make 38% in the Russian consumer price index, and growth of the world prices for grain by 30% in July can lead to growth of the Russian IPTs on 1. 7 pct. Proceeding from these reasons, we raise our forecast of inflation for 2010 though, considering probability of the state interventions in the market of grain, we raise the forecast on only 0. 5 pct, with 7. 0% to 7. 5%. It assumes that in usually deflationary August and September the increase in prices on 0 will be recorded. 3% and 0. 2% month - to - to month respectively - analysts the Alpha - Bank assume.

Next year it is necessary to buy policies of the CMTPL perhaps one third more expensively. Tariffs will grow together with the increase in limits of payments for damage to health and property of victims offered by the Ministry of Finance in road accident. Growth of collecting on a hand to the insurers choking with losses according to the CMTPL. As for motorists whether they will feel that payments increased? Insurers underestimate them, and is unclear that will prevent them to work and further.

The Ministry of Finance sent to departments the bill increasing excises by cigarettes in 2011 for 44%. If amendments to the Tax code are adopted, it will become the most considerable increase of an excise for the last five years. At the same time, in four years they grew up twice as it is, and so also retail prices for cigarettes increased.

The Ministry of Finance the other day sent for consideration in the government also the amendments assuming growth of excises on alcohol. It conducts to the fact that the cheapest vodka in 2011 will cost 150 rubles in difference from today`s price in 89 rubles.

Elvira Nabyullina, the Minister of Economics of Russia, reported that the government intends to lower RAB - tariffs for 2011. According to the Minister of Economics, final price of electricity for the industry WILL GROW within 15%. In 2012 growth rate will make within 12%, in 2013 - 10 - 11%. Decrease in the final price for consumers is planned to be reached due to restriction of growth rates of tariffs for transfer of the electric power and the prices of power in the long-term market. As all this will be reflected in purses of our pockets it is unknown, to be exact, pleasant forecasts, as usual, are improbable.

It is not excluded that the secondary housing will rise in price in 2011. The increase in prices in primary market is quite probable, there dynamic reduction of volume of the offer is observed today. Considerable part from the houses which are under construction today are sold already out, and new projects appear very little. As a result in primary market in rather close time there can be an acute shortage. Increase in prices for new buildings, unambiguously, will pull for the prices in the secondary market, generally in qualitative segments.

Here such forecasts for us are prepared by 2011.